Moderna Inc.  (MRNA)

03/24/2024





It is proved that the technology of m-RNA is a more advantageous technology for medicine development. However, the factors of declined Covid infection cases, vaccination fatigue, vaccination reluctance has caused the dramatic decline in Covid vaccine sale for Moderna. Even with its fast development of RVS vaccine and flu vaccine, the foreseeable revenue for Moderna can not compensate the current level of stock price.



Again, concentration investing involves higher risk of significant loss without the protection of diversity.


Each individual investor should always consider their own investment goal, risk tolerance, investing span and objectives for their investment positions. Investing in securities involved the risk of total losses. Investors should always consult with financial professionals.




04/23/2023





As Covid-19 is spreading like seasonal flue now even there are occurrence of regional epidemic. It is more likely than not Covid-19 and immunity is in an state of equilibrium. Therefore, current market value of Moderna is a fairly represented and reflects the current state of future revenue and profit from Covid-19 vaccine.


The upside of share price of Moderna is narrowed now and likely dependent on the development of new medicines in the pipeline. Even though Moderna and BioNTech have demonstrated the advantage of mRNA over other methods of pharmaceutical development, the time frame of a drug development is long and wide which will not help the advance of stock price. Addition to the prolong drug development, the current general market condition is in a state of volatile and uncertainty. We reduce the holding of Moderna Inc to 2% of the Portfolio III in order to preserve cash for better opportunity.



Again, concentration investing involves higher risk of significant loss without the protection of diversity.



Each individual investor should always consider their own investment goal, risk tolerance, investing span and objectives for their investment positions. Investing in securities involved the risk of total losses. Investors should always consult with financial professionals.





02/23/2023





Globally, government and citizen have given up to contain Covid-19 even China government had given up such effort. Citizen are ready to live with Covid-19 and with least vaccination likely.


FDA and CDC are more like than not to designate Covid-19 vaccination as annual event. The result is the reduction on sale of vaccine shoot. We believe the trend and situation is set in unless there is a terrible variant coming up.


The reduction is due to the baseline of its sale of Covid-19 vaccine is adjusted lower. Previously, the anticipation of vaccination will be in 9-month interval. Softwater Investment is still convinced the evidence of medical technologies of mRNA and its results. Therefore, keep a smaller position and participate longer run for the development in pipeline.




Again, concentration investing involves higher risk of significant loss without the protection of diversity.



Each individual investor should always consider their own investment goal, risk tolerance, investing span and objectives for their investment positions. Investing in securities involved the risk of total losses. Investors should always consult with financial professionals.





11/07/2022


Update LNPs



It is clear now that both Moderna and BioNTech did not develop their own LNP and used third party LNP products. Softwater Investment believes that more likely than not that Moderna and BioNTech will lose the lawsuits. However, the impact on Moderna and BioNTech would not be significant financially. It is more likely that both mRNA vaccine makers have to pay royalty to Arbutus Biopharma for using LNP.






09/22/2022



 

After President Biden stated that Covid-19 pandemic was over,  Congress is almost not going to fund any Covid-19 related budget. The request for further Covid-19 vaccine shots is murkier in the United States than EU due to the difference in healthcare systems.

 

From here, MRNA and BNTX should be treated as two totally different investments. In the past year and half, the medicine developments in pipelines from both companies have begun to show differences in progress. To view the pipelines & progress, click: BNTX, MRNA. 

We believe BNTX having better progress in their medicine development in the pipeline than MRNA; hence, more weight is putting on BNTX.


Scale back investing in MRNA and BNTX is to preserve capital for future when requirement for Covid-19 vaccine shots on guideline is clearer. Softwater Investment is seeking the probability that 40% of current vaccinated population will continue the shots with older, immune compromised and high risk population having extra shot annually, same rate as annual flu shots in the United States, except for population in China, Russian, Indian, and some regions in Africa and Americas.

p.s. Investors should have zero expectation that China will utilize vaccines from either BNTX or MRNA. Clinical trial for BNTX in China currently was stuck in phase II for original SARS-cov-19 strain.


Each individual investor should always consider their own investment goal, risk tolerance, investing span and objectives for their investment positions. Investing in securities involved the risk of total losses. Consulting with financial professionals is always recommended.




03/24/2022 - Moderna Inc. (MRNA) 



Caution: Concentration risk should be considered seriously relate to significant loss, financial burden, tolerance of risk, investment objective before investing heavily in one company. More information for concentration risk on investment from FINRA.

 




03/15/2022 - Moderna Inc (MRNA)


According the guidelines provided by Pfizer Inc and Moderna Inc, the estimated revenue of fiscal 2022 from vaccine sale will be at same level as in 2021. The assumption here is that the level of net income for 2022 should be similar to 2021. At current market price, Moderna is trading at approximate slightly above 2 times of its end-of-fiscal-2022 book value if the assumption is correct. From the prospect of value on balance sheet, we, in softwaterinvestment.com, believe the shares of MRNA are considered cheap for a long term investment.




03/01/2022 - Moderna Inc. (MRNA)




12/01/2021 - Moderna Inc. (MRNA), BioNTech SE(BNTX) 




As the operator of softwaterinvestment.com, I apologize to investors here for the impulse, foolish, terrible and panic-like mistakes made on 11/05/2021. The decision to sell those shares of Moderna and BioNTech is not well thought out and is inconsistent with long term investment strategy, and is also against the original studies.

 


Repurchase & Equal Weight


More than 100 years of experience from Pfizer in the pharmaceutical industry and its global network provides tremendous help to BioNTech from global clinic trials, material procurement, production, distribution and connection with other pharmaceutical companies. Their partnership provides more benefit to BioNTech than what Pfizer gets


Again, apology for the cost and anxiety of the sale on 5/11/2021.




11/05/2021 - Moderna Inc. (MRNA) , BioNTech SE(BNTX) 



Reduce current position 30% for Moderna Inc and BioNTech SE due to the competition from PAXLOVID, a high efficacy pill against hospitalization or death of COVID-19


Due to the reason that PAXLOVID's 89% efficacy against hospitalization or death of COVID-19, COVID-19 vaccines will be encountered by more competitions which are pills and can be taken by patients at home.


But, why only reduce 30% of current holding of MRNA and BNTX each and not more?


Reasons:


This a win for Pfizer even it is a lose to Moderna Inc and BioNTech SE.

But it is a big win for science and human kind.


Read more from Pfizer (link).






11/04/2021 - Moderna Inc. (MRNA) 


It is a out-of-expectation disappointed quarter. 


From past experience, there are going to have waves of downgrades and target-price reduction for Moderna Inc from analysts within several weeks in the future. Each downgrade and target-price reduction is going to put downward pressure on the stock price of Moderna Inc, and it will depress the performance of whole portfolio. Also, fear of uncertainty will be in play.


It is more obvious now that Moderna's capacity to quickly scale up in global reach has hit another road block. That lack of global network and experience has been dragging down Moderna's performance on mass scale of clinic trials and now logistic on production and distribution. Unlike Pfizer, a one hundred and seventy two years old company who has well established global network, its performance on clinic trials, production and distribution has been smooth without much of hiccup. And, BioNTech, Pfizer's partner in vaccine developments, does not have to worry about such problems that Moderna encounters now. 


In facts, those drag-down will have significant impact on Moderna Inc's revenue and income; hence, reduced financial strength definitely has negative effect on future development of the Company. But comparing a year ago, Moderna Inc has brighter future ahead.


Beside those bottlenecks, the fundamentals of Moderna Inc has not changed. Its advantage on researches and developments of sciences and medicines may have and should have advanced due to its strong financial boost from sale of Covid-19 vaccines.


Its short term and medium term outlook is dimed slightly, and its stock price will react accordingly.

However, its long term prosperity have not change much. React wisely with stock price fluctuation. 



Conference call for 3rd Quarter of 2021  when it is available.



08/15/2021 - Valuation

Moderna Inc (MRNA) and BioNTech SE (BNTX ADR)


Valuation, a complex, subjective and often confusing processes and products, is very much in every security analysts' mind. There are so many steps and items to be considered in order to arrive a conclusion, especially the items in crystal ball. There is always a little difference in each step of valuation processes among analysts. The result of little difference adds up to big difference when the conclusion is reached. For the examples of Moderna Inc and BioNTech SE, the gap of difference of analysts' target price is about $300-$400 dollar per share. The target price is in the range of $463-$83 per share for Moderna Inc and in the range of $451 to $133 for BioNTech SE.


Hypothetically, the stock price of MRNA and BNTX should have been traded below $100 or even lower if inoculation is close to 100% in U.S. and Globe. The reason is that Cov-sars-2 would have difficulty to find a host to spread; therefore, there will be no need of Covid-19 vaccine and revenue from vaccine will drop to zero. The price of MRNA and BNTX should and would have gone back to pre-pandemic level. But, how about billions of cash in their balance sheet? We will need more crystal balls. Adding another valuation/target price will only add more confuse into the pot.


The business development of MRNA and BNTX are important and so as evolving of cov-sars-2 and their variants. Paying close attention to what cov-sars-2 have to say and keep saying to human being is much more important than what analysts have to say. 


There are few quarterly update in financial data for MRNA and BNTX.

Also the news release from the companies for their latest development for vaccines, Moderna and BioNTech.





07/02/2021 - Moderna Inc  







06/28/2021 - CORRECTION ON Moderna Inc and BioNTech SE 


The correct increased amount to invest in Moderna and BioNTech should be as following 


Instead of 




06/23/2021 - Moderna Inc (MRNA) and BioNTech SE (BNTX ADR)





06/02/2021 - Moderna Inc (MRNA) and BioNTech SE (BNTX ADR)




WARNING: 

Softwater Investment has troubled tracking records for investing in the medical industry. The following is the list of past investments:

Even COVID-19 vaccines are successful products, both Moderna and BioNTech are the companies with only one successful product which means both companies have to prove they are worthy of advanced researches, advantageous technologies at this price. And that means investment in both companies involve more risks than average.


Why should Moderna and BioNTech be two good choices of investment?


The first reason to invest in Moderna and BioNTech is low valuation. However, the low valuation is very subjective and is mainly dependent on the opinion on how long vaccination is needed. In other words, how long/how many years can Moderna and BioNTech keep producing COVID-19 vaccines for the need to vaccinate the population. 

The subjective valuation is fair now or even overvalued if the belief of the need of COVID-19 vaccines will subside beyond 2021/2022, or COVID-19 will disappear on earth, or durability of effective neutralizing antibodies will last many years to come. On the contrary, if the conclusion is that COVID-19 vaccination is necessary every year to contain the spread of COVID-19, the price paid for the shares of Moderna and BioNTech is low and has a distance to run from here.


The second reason is the competitive advantage of mRNA technologies. mRNA technologies from both Moderna and BioNTech have demonstrated their advantages over traditional vaccine developments. They are able to come out on the top at this race defeating Johnson and Johnson, AstraZeneca, Merck or even Pfizer (if Pfizer had not partnered with BioNTech. Of course, BioNTech couldn't have done it without  Pfizer's global reach and billions of dollars of financial support).